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Dr. William G. Kennedy, “Bill,” is continuing to learn in a third career, this time as an academic, a computational social scientist.
His first a career was in military service as a Naval Officer, starting with the Naval Academy, Naval PostGraduate School (as the first computer science student from the Naval Academy), and serving during the Cold War as part of the successful submarine-based nuclear deterrent. After six years of active duty service, he served over two decades in the Naval Reserves commanding three submarine and submarine-related reserve units and retiring after 30 years as a Navy Captain with several personal honors and awards.
His second career was in civilian public service: 10 years at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and 15 years with the Department of Energy. At the NRC he rose to be an advisor to the Executive Director for Operations and the authority on issues concerning the reliance on human operators for reactor safety, participating in two fly-away accident response teams. He left the NRC for a promotion and to lead, as technical director, the entrepreneurial effort to explore the use of light-water and accelerator technologies for the production of nuclear weapons materials. That work led to him becoming the senior policy officer responsible for strategic planning and Departmental performance commitments, leading development of the first several DOE strategic plans and formal performance agreements between the Secretary of Energy and the President.
Upon completion of doctoral research in Artificial Intelligence outside of his DOE work, he began his third career as a scientist. That started with a fully funded, three-year post-doctoral research position in cognitive robotics at the Naval Research Laboratory sponsored by the National Academy of Science and expanding his AI background with research in experimental Cognitive Science. Upon completion, he joined the Center for Social Complexity, part of the Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study at George Mason University in 2008 where he is now the Senior Scientific Advisor. His research interests range from cognition at the individual level to models of millions of agents representing individual people. He is currently leading a multi-year project to characterize the reaction of the population of a mega-city to a nuclear WMD (weapon of mass destruction) event.
Dr. Kennedy holds a B.S. in mathematics from the U.S. Naval Academy, and Master of Science in Computer Science from the Naval PostGraduate School, and a Ph.D. in Information Technology from George Mason University and has a current security clearance. Dr. Kennedy is a member of Sigma Xi, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), and a life member of Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. He is a STEM volunteer with the Senior Scientists and Engineers/AAAS Volunteer Program for K-12 science, technology, engineering, and mathematics education in the DC-area schools.
Cognitive Science, Computational Social Science, Social Cognition, Autonomy, Cognitive Robotics
Charlotte is an International PhD graduate originally from New Zealand who first came to ASU to pursue her PhD in Anthropology in Aug 2013, thanks to receiving a Science and Innovation Scholarship through the Fulbright Program. She holds a BS majoring in Genetics and a BA majoring in Anthropology from Otago University, New Zealand. She received her Masters in Anthropology in May 2015 and her PhD in Anthropology in 2022 both from ASU. Her main areas of interest are Human Migration, Migration Decision Making, and Environmental Perceptions.
At present she is an Assistant Research Scientist with the School of Complex Adaptive Systems at ASU where she is primarily focused on her roles as the administrative coordinator for CoMSES.NET and The Open Modeling Foundation. She is also adjunct Anthropology faculty at Phoenix College, and Chandler-Gilbert Community College teaching various undergraduate anthropology courses. She is deeply interested in how computational tools and technologies can be used to explore complex adaptive systems, explore possible futures, and better inform policy and decision makers at the leading edge of change.
My broad research interests are in human-environmental interactions and land-use change. Specifically, I am interested in how people make land-use decisions, how those decisions modify the functioning of natural systems, and how those modifications feedback on human well-being, livelihoods, and subsequent land-use decisions. All of my research begins with a complex systems background with the aim of understanding the dynamics of human-environment interactions and their consequences for environmental and economic sustainability. Agent-based modeling is my primary tool of choice to understand human-environment interactions, but I also frequently use other land change modeling approaches (e.g., cellular automata, system dynamics, econometrics), spatial statistics, and GIS. I also have expertise in synthesis methods (e.g., meta-analysis) for bringing together leveraging disparate forms of social and environmental data to understand how specific cases (i.e., local) of land-use change contribute to and/or differ from broader-scale (i.e. regional or global) patterns of human-environment interactions and land change outcomes.
In my research I focus on understanding human behaviour in group(s) as a part of a complex (social) system. My research can be characterised by the overall question: ‘How does group or collective behaviour arise or change given its social and physical context?‘ More specifically, I have engaged with: ‘How is (individual) human behaviour affected by being in a crowd?’, ‘Why do some groups (cooperatively) use their resources sustainably, whereas others do not?‘, ‘What is the role of (often implicit simplistic) assumptions regarding human behaviour for science and/or management?’
To address these questions, I use computational simulations to integrate and reflect synthesised knowledge from literature, empirics and experts. Models, simulation and data analysis are my tools for gaining a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying such systems. More specifically, I work with agent-based modelling (ABM), simulation experiments and data analysis of large datasets. Apart from crowd modelling and social-ecological modelling, I also develop methodological tools to analyse social simulation data and combining ABM with other methods, such as behavioural experiments.
My research focuses on building a systemic understanding of coupled human-natural systems. In particular, I am interested in understanding how patterns of land-use and land-cover change emerge from human alterations of natural processes and the resulting feedbacks. Study systems of interest include those undergoing agricultural to urban conversion, typically known as urban sprawl, and those in which protective measures, such as wildfire suppression or flood/storm impact controls, can lead to long-term instability.
Dynamic agent- and process-based simulation models are my primary tools for studying human and natural systems, respectively. My past work includes the creation of dynamic, process-based simulation models of the wildland fires along the urban-wildland interface (UWI), and artificial dune construction to protect coastal development along a barrier island coastline. My current research involves the testing, refinement, extension of an economic agent-based model of coupled housing and land markets (CHALMS), and a new project developing a generalized agent-based model of land-use change to explore local human-environmental interactions globally.
Community assembly after intervention by coral transplantation
The potential of transplantation of scleractinian corals in restoring degraded reefs has been widely recognized. Levels of success of coral transplantation have been highly variable due to variable environmental conditions and interactions with other reef organisms. The community structure of the area being restored is an emergent outcome of the interaction of its components as well as of processes at the local level. Understanding the
coral reef as a complex adaptive system is essential in understanding how patterns emerge from processes at local scales. Data from a coral transplantation experiment will be used to develop an individual-based model of coral community development. The objectives of the model are to develop an understanding of assembly rules, predict trajectories and discover unknown properties in the development of coral reef communities in the context of reef restoration. Simulation experiments will be conducted to derive insights on community trajectories under different disturbance regimes as well as initial transplantation configurations. The model may also serve as a decision-support tool for reef restoration.
Alma Mater: FT Ranked No. 10 Business Economics school.
Ranked No 1 in an engineering mathematics national level test.
Ranked No 1 in an analytics program at IIT Bombay.
B.E. Mechanical Engineering.
MTech 1st year Modelling and Simulation.
PhD 1st year Strategy Simulation at The University of Texas at Dallas.
Tuition scholarships at the Santa Fe Institute.
GMAT 730
5 years of operations research work experience.
Published and presented a poster at the The Operational Research Society, UK Annual Conference 2021 integrating strategy and applied math. Took on and resolved a longstanding problem.
Solo authored leadership article in the Analytics magazine Nov/Dec 2021 issue from INFORMS.
Solo authored theoretical optimization abstract at the ICORES 2022 Conference.
Authoring the black-tie, board room manual - The Change Management Series Volume 1 Kindle edition on Amazon March, 2022.
I am a participant at the Financial Modeling World Cup 2022.
Build spiders for scraping web data.
Agent-based computer simulation in strategy, the resource-based view in strategy, agency theory and top & middle management incentives, organizational economics, algorithmic game theory, financial friction, financial econometrics.
As of my incorporation into the Department of Computer Architecture and Operating Systems of the UAB as a postgraduate student, it is possible to divide my scientific-technical career into the following stages:
Simulation of Parallel Applications (1992-99): Focused on the design and development of simulators of parallel applications. This research main objective was the definition of abstractions for parallel programs, based on characterizing tasks and their dependences. Two main abstractions were developed, at first a simpler one, which was easier to parametrize, and, next, a more complex an accurate one. Using these characterizations, several simulation tools were programmed and used in the context of national and European projects. As part of my Master’s thesis, I was involved in the design and development of some of these simulation applications.
National projects: 4, European: 2
International conferences: 3, National: 1, Journal papers: 3
Security in Distributed Systems (2007-12): Focused on the design and development of the FPVA (First Principles Vulnerability Assessment) methodology for the evaluation of vulnerabilities in Grid applications. This methodology clearly defined a set of steps for the assessment of Grid applications vulnerabilities, most of these steps could be automatized or at least supported by specific tools. Jointly with other professors of our group and from the University of Wisconsin, I was involved in the original definition and application of this methodology.
International projects: 2
Master Thesis: 1, Ph.D. Thesis: 1
International conferences: 2, National: 1, Journal papers: 2
Parallel Application Modeling (1999-present): This is my main line of research, aimed at defining high-level performance models for parallel applications. Initially, models were defined for MPI applications with a master-worker and pipeline structure, but later this line has been expanded with the definition of models for memory-intensive OpenMP applications, composed (mix of several structures) applications, applications based on mathematical libraries, distributed data-intensive applications and, finally, applications based on the simulation of agents (ABS) with SPMD structure.
As a result of the work on modeling the performance of ABS parallel systems, we have opened a new line for the definition and implementation of a benchmark for assessing the performance of the parallel simulators generated by well-known platforms, such as FLAME, Repast-HPC or D-Mason. In addition, the knowledge we have gained on this topic has opened new ways of collaboration for optimizing real parallel ABS in the health sciences area (tumor growth and infection spread).
National projects: 12, European: 1
International conferences: 17, National: 4, Journal papers: 11
International Presentations: 4
Parallel Applications Tuning Tools (2010-present): Focused on the design and development of tools for automatic tuning and, in some cases, also dynamic tuning of parallel applications. These tools allow the integration of performance models in the form of external components provided by the analyst. For this reason, this research line is tightly coupled with the Parallel Application Modeling one. The two main tools developed totally or partially by our group are Monitoring Analysis and Tuning Environment-MATE (and its highly scalable evolution ELASTIC) and Periscope Tuning Framework-PTF.
National projects: 2, European: 1
International conferences: 11, Journal papers: 2
Tools: MATE, ELASTIC, PTF
International Presentations: 5
I am a spatial (GIS) agent-based modeler i.e. modeler that simulates the impact of various individual decisions on the environment. My work is mainly methodological i.e. I develop tools that make agent-based modeling (ABM) easier to do. I especially focus on developing tools that allow for evaluating various uncertainties in ABM. One of these uncertainties are the ways of quantifying agent decisions (i.e. the algorithmic representation of agent decision rules) for example to address the question of “How do the agents decide whether to grow crops or rather put land to fallow?”. One of the methods I developed focuses on representing residential developers’ risk perception for example to answer the question: “to what extent is the developer risk-taking and would be willing to build new houses targeted at high-income families (small market but big return on investment)?”. Other ABM uncertainties that I evaluate are various spatial inputs (e.g. different representations of soil erosion, different maps of environmental benefits from land conservation) and various demographics (i.e. are retired farmers more willing to put land to conservation?). The tools I develop are mostly used in (spatial) sensitivity analysis of ABM (quantitative, qualitative, and visual).
Modeling land use change from smallholder agricultural intensification
Agricultural expansion in the rural tropics brings much needed economic and social development in developing countries. On the other hand, agricultural development can result in the clearing of biologically-diverse and carbon-rich forests. To achieve both development and conservation objectives, many government policies and initiatives support agricultural intensification, especially in smallholdings, as a way to increase crop production without expanding farmlands. However, little is understood regarding how different smallholders might respond to such investments for yield intensification. It is also unclear what factors might influence a smallholder’s land-use decision making process. In this proposed research, I will use a bottom-up approach to evaluate whether investments in yield intensification for smallholder farmers would really translate to sustainable land use in Indonesia. I will do so by combining socioeconomic and GIS data in an agent-based model (Land-Use Dynamic Simulator multi-agent simulation model). The outputs of my research will provide decision makers with new and contextualized information to assist them in designing agricultural policies to suit varying socioeconomic, geographic and environmental contexts.
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