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In this paper, we explore the dynamic of stock prices over time by developing an agent-based market. The developed artificial market comprises of heterogeneous agents occupied with various behaviors and trading strategies. To be specific, the agents in the market may expose to overconfidence, conservatism or loss aversion biases. Additionally, they may employ fundamental, technical, adaptive (neural network) strategies or simply being arbitrary agents (zero intelligence agents). The market has property of direct interaction. The environment takes the form of network structure, namely, it takes the manifestation of scale-free network. The information will flow between the agents through the linkages that connect them. Furthermore, the tax imposed by the regulator is investigated. The model is subjected to goodness of fit to the empirical observations of the S\&P500. The fitting of the model is refined by calibrating the model parameters through heuristic approach, particularly, scatter search. Conclusively, the parameters are validated against normality, absence of correlations, volatility cluster and leverage effect using statistical tests.
I have been working in the software implementation of different kinds of complex networks inspired in real-life populations. My software may be classified on several categories: complex networks, Aedes aegypti development, dengue epidemics, cultural behavior of populations. I am also researching in education of Deaf people in Colombia.
I am fascinated by unraveling water-scarcity patterns. I am an expert in Integrated Assessment Modelling and Water Footprint Assessment. The concepts and tools that I have developed and applied all aim at availing knowledge at scales relevant to decision-makers in the water sector. During my PhD at the University of Twente I evaluated how spatiotemporal patterns of water availability relate to patterns of water use for a river basin in the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil. I have used agent-based modelling and developed the downstreamness concept to analyze the emergence of basin closure. This concept is helpful to water managers for identifying priority locations for intervention inside a river basin system. As a postdoc I continued to evaluate the relation between water use and availability and further broadened my scope to a wider range of related topics.
I am interested in the interface between biology and computation. I am especially focused on modelling and simulation of evolutionary processes.
I am an assistant professor in the Department of Computer Science at the Hamedan University of Technology, Hamedan, IRAN. I have completed my Ph.D. in Futures Studies (foresight) as an interdisciplinary field, an intersection of social sciences and engineering. My
background comes from computer science. For my Ph.D., I decided to pursue my education in Futures Studies; the field I thought I could apply engineering principles such as requirements engineering, analytical skills, design, modeling, planning, and, test engineering to shape the
desired futures. In PhD, I started the complex systems research field and agent-based modeling with NetLogo. In addition to several publications of papers, I published a book on complex systems titled “Futures Studies in Complex Systems” which was awarded as the book of the year by the Iranian Foresight Association.
Since May 2021, I started a research collaboration with TISSS Lab at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz as a project coordinator, the German Research Centre for AI, Human-Centered Multimedia, and the Centre for Research in Social Simulation. The project title is “AI for Assessment” and its objective is to understand the status quo and the future options of AI-based social assessment in public service provisions to help in the creation of improved AI technology for social welfare systems.
On the executive side, I have also various experiences, including head of the department, deputy of the Technology Incubator Center, director of university’s research affairs, and head of the International Scientific Cooperation Office.
Complex Systems, Social Modeling and Simulation
Engineering the Futures
Dr. Morteza Mahmoudzadeh is an assitant professor at the University of Azad at Tabriz in the Department of Managent and the director of the Policy Modeling Research Lab. Dr. Mahmoudzadeh did a degree in Software Engineering and a PhD in System Sciences. Dr. Mahmoudzadeh currently works on different regional and national wide projects about modeling sustaiblity and resilience of industrial ecosystems, innovation networks and socio-environmental systems. He also works on hybrid models of opinion dynamics and agent based models specifically in the field of modeling customers behavior and developing managerial tools for strategic marketing policy testing. His team at Policy Modeling Research Lab. currently work on developing a web based tool with python for systems modeling using system dynamics, Messa framework for agent-based modeling and Social Networks Analysis.
Modeling Complex systems, Simulation: System Dynamics, Agent Based and Discrete Event
System and Complexity Theory
For my Ph.D. thesis, I developed a system to play poker.
I’m interested to see whether a similar approach can be applied to agent based models.
I am interested in modeling social behavior. I have been working in the field of labor economics and industrial relations and how micro-simulations determine aggregate outcomes.
I study human dimensions of natural resource management and resource use by under-represented populations—often in developing nations—to enhance our understanding of conflicts involving land use, natural resources, and conservation from an interdisciplinary, systematic lens. My research spans subjects such as common pool resource management and policy, decentralization, and land use/land cover change drivers and trends relating to population rise and environmental change.
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