Criminal organizations operate in complex changing environments. Being flexible and dynamic allows criminal networks not only to exploit new illicit opportunities but also to react to law enforcement attempts at disruption, enhancing the persistence of these networks over time. Most studies investigating network disruption have examined organizational structures before and after the arrests of some actors but have disregarded groups’ adaptation strategies.
MADTOR simulates drug trafficking and dealing activities by organized criminal groups and their reactions to law enforcement attempts at disruption. The simulation relied on information retrieved from a detailed court order against a large-scale Italian drug trafficking organization (DTO) and from the literature.
The results showed that the higher the proportion of members arrested, the greater the challenges for DTOs, with higher rates of disrupted organizations and long-term consequences for surviving DTOs. Second, targeting members performing specific tasks had different impacts on DTO resilience: targeting traffickers resulted in the highest rates of DTO disruption, while targeting actors in charge of more redundant tasks (e.g., retailers) had smaller but significant impacts. Third, the model examined the resistance and resilience of DTOs adopting different strategies in the security/efficiency trade-off. Efficient DTOs were more resilient, outperforming secure DTOs in terms of reactions to a single, equal attempt at disruption. Conversely, secure DTOs were more resistant, displaying higher survival rates than efficient DTOs when considering the differentiated frequency and effectiveness of law enforcement interventions on DTOs having different focuses in the security/efficiency trade-off.
Overall, the model demonstrated that law enforcement interventions are often critical events for DTOs, with high rates of both first intention (i.e., DTOs directly disrupted by the intervention) and second intention (i.e., DTOs terminating their activities due to the unsustainability of the intervention’s short-term consequences) culminating in dismantlement. However, surviving DTOs always displayed a high level of resilience, with effective strategies in place to react to threatening events and to continue drug trafficking and dealing.

The model measures drivers of effectiveness of risk assessments in risk workshops where a calculative culture of quantitative skepticism is present. We model the limits to information transfer, incomplete discussions, group characteristics, and interaction patterns and investigate their effect on risk assessment in risk workshops, in order to contrast results to a previous model focused on a calculative culture of quantitative enthusiasm.

The model simulates a discussion in the context of a risk workshop with 9 participants. The participants use constraint satisfaction networks to assess a given risk individually and as a group.

MELBIS-V1 is a spatially explicit agent-based model that allows the geospatial simulation of the decision-making process of newcomers arriving in the bilingual cities and boroughs of the island of Montreal, Quebec in CANADA, and the resulting urban segregation spatial patterns. The model was implemented in NetLogo, using geospatial raster datasets of 120m spatial resolution.

MELBIS-V2 enhances MELBIS-V1 to implement and simulate the decision-making processes of incoming immigrants, and to analyze the resulting spatial patterns of segregation as immigrants arrive and settle in various cities in Canada. The arrival and segregation of immigrants is modeled with MELBIS-V2 and compared for three major Canadian immigration gateways, including the City of Toronto, Metro Vancouver, and the City of Calgary.

LogoClim is a NetLogo model designed to be integrated into other simulations through the LevelSpace extension (Hjorth et al., 2020), providing high resolution climate data from sources validated and used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The model simplifies and standardizes the integration of climate data into NetLogo, allowing researchers to focus their efforts on the model itself with the assurance of using reliable and widely recognized data. Although its main use is as a component of larger simulations, LogoClim also has its own graphical interface for monitoring and checking the datasets.

The climate data comes from the WorldClim 2.1 project (Fick & Hijmans, 2017), for which LogoClim works as an interface to NetLogo. The model supports all three WorldClim data series: (1) Historical Climate Data (1970 to 2000), with 12 monthly points for minimum, mean, and maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, vapor pressure, elevation, and bioclimatic variables; (2) Historical Monthly Weather Data (1951 to 2024), based on downscaling of CRU-TS-4.09, developed by the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (Harris et al., 2020), with minimum and maximum temperature and total precipitation; and (3) Future Climate Data, based on downscaling climate projections derived from global climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (Eyring et al., 2016) for four future periods (2021 to 2040, 2041 to 2060, 2061 to 2080, and 2081 to 2100) and four scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 126, 245, 370, and 585), covering minimum and maximum temperature, total precipitation, and bioclimatic variables. All series are available at multiple spatial resolutions, from 10 minutes (about 340 km² at the equator) to 30 seconds (about 1 km² at the equator).

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This model has been created with and for the researcher-farmers of the Muonde Trust (http://www.muonde.org/), a registered Zimbabwean non-governmental organization dedicated to fostering indigenous innovation. Model behaviors and parameters (mashandiro nemisiyano nedzimwe model) derive from a combination of literature review and the collected datasets from Muonde’s long-term (over 30 years) community-based research. The goals of this model are three-fold (muzvikamu zvitatu):
A) To represent three components of a Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system (crops, woodland grazing area, and livestock) along with their key interactions and feedbacks and some of the human management decisions that may affect these components and their interactions.
B) To assess how climate variation (implemented in several different ways) and human management may affect the sustainability of the system as measured by the continued provisioning of crops, livestock, and woodland grazing area.
C) To provide a discussion tool for the community and local leaders to explore different management strategies for the agro-pastoral system (hwaro/nzira yekudyidzana kwavanhu, zvipfuo nezvirimwa), particularly in the face of climate change.

This is the code for the model described in an article in the International Journal of Microsimulation. Lawson (2013) ‘Modelling Household Spending Using a Random Assignment Scheme’, International Journal of Microsimulation, 6(2) Autumn 2013, 56-75.